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What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

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Author Info

  • Robinson Kruse

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Michael Frömmel

    (Ghent University)

  • Lukas Menkhoff

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

  • Philipp Sibbertsen

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

Abstract

This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-50.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 28 May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-50

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: real exchange rates; unit root test; ESTAR; Markov Switching; PPP;

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References

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  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1348, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
  4. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hendrik Kaufmann & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2012. "On tests for linearity against STAR models with deterministic trends," CREATES Research Papers 2012-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
  3. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  4. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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