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What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

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Author Info

  • Robinson Kruse

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Michael Frömmel

    (Ghent University)

  • Lukas Menkhoff

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

  • Philipp Sibbertsen

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

Abstract

This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-50.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 28 May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-50

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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Keywords: real exchange rates; unit root test; ESTAR; Markov Switching; PPP;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?," Working Papers, HAL halshs-00559170, HAL.
  2. Kaufmann, Hendrik & Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2012. "On tests for linearity against STAR models with deterministic trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 268-271.
  3. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2012-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.

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