Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts
AbstractSubstantial empirical research documents that exchange-rate forecasts are not formed rationally. This paper identifies a common technical trading signal, the head-and-shoulders pattern, as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange-rate forecasts. Forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994, using two criteria for rationality: profitability and efficiency. Resulting profits, replicable in real-time, are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique. We find that the rule is profitable, but not efficient, since it is dominated by simpler trading rules.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 109 (1999)
Issue (Month): 458 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- P Kuang & M Schroder & Q Wang, 2013.
"Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets,"
13-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Pei Kuang & M. Schröder & Q. Wang, 2013. "Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets," CDMA Working Paper Series 201302, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001.
"Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market,"
1999-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
- Paul Weller & Christopher Neely, 1999. "Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," Working Papers wp99-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
- Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
- Stephan Schulmeister, . "Profitability and Price Effects of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 140, WIFO.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010.
"The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The Use of Technical Analysis by Fund Managers: International Evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen FakultÃ¤t der Leibniz UniversitÃ¤t Hannover dp-446, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Andrew Lo & Emanuele Viola, 2011.
"A computational view of market efficiency,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 1043-1050.
- BEN OMRANE, Walid & VAN OPPEN, Hervé, 2004. "The predictive success and profitability of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers 2004035, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
- Batchelor, Roy & Kwan, Tai Yeong, 2007. "Judgemental bootstrapping of technical traders in the bond market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-445.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
- Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Álvaro Veiga & Carlos Eduardo Pedreira, 2000. "Modelling exchange rates: smooth transitions, neural networks, and linear models," Textos para discussÃ£o 432, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Nguyen, James, 2004. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Is It Applicable to the Foreign Exchange Market?," Economics Working Papers wp04-20, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
- Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
- Alper Özün, 2006. "Using New Information Technologies for Modelling Data on Global Markets: An Efficient Interaction between "Artificial" Human Brain and Economics," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 349-359 Izmir University of Economics.
- Carol L. Osler, 2001. "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis," Staff Reports 125, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.