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Trades of the Living Dead: Style Differences, Style Persistence and Performance of Currency Fund Managers

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Author Info
Momtchil Pojarliev
Richard M. Levich

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Abstract

We make use of a new database on daily currency fund manager returns over a three-year period, 2005-08. This higher frequency data allows us to estimate both alpha measures of performance and beta style factors on a yearly basis, which in turn allows us to test for persistence. We find no evidence to support alpha persistence; a manager's alpha in one year is not significantly related to his alpha in the prior year. On the other hand, there is substantial evidence for style persistence; funds that rely on carry, trend or value trading or with a long/short bias toward currency volatility are likely to maintain that style in the following year. In addition, we are able to examine the performance of managers that survive through the entire sample period, versus those that drop out. We find significant differences in both the investment styles of living versus deceased funds, as well as their realized alpha performance measures. We conjecture that both style differences and ineffective market timing, rather than market conditions, have impacted performance outcomes and induced some managers to close their funds.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14355.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14355

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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