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Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System

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Author Info
Christopher Neely
Paul Weller

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Abstract

Using the genetic programming methodology developed in Neely, Weller and Dittmar (1997), we find trading rules that generate significant excess returns for three of four EMS exchange rates over the out-of-sample period 1986-1996. Permitting the rules to use information about the interest rate differential proved to be important. The reduction in volatility resulting from the imposition of a narrower band may reduce trading rule profitability. The currency for which there was least evidence of significant excess returns was the Dutch guilder, which was also the only currency that remained within a band of 2.25% throughout our sample period. Our results cannot be duplicated by the moving average or filter rules commonly used by technical analysts or by two trading rules designed specifically to exploit known features of target zone exchange rates. The observed excess returns cannot be explained as compensation for bearing systematic risk.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-015.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Publication status: Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, June 1999, 18(3), pp. 429-58
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-015

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Keywords: Foreign exchange ; European Monetary System (Organization);

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1986. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Target zones and conditional volatility: the role of realignments," Working Papers 1994-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Franklin Allen & Risto Karjalainen, . "Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules (Revised: 20-95)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  10. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. repec:fth:pennfi:70 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Predicting exchange rate volatility: genetic programming vs. GARCH and RiskMetrics," Working Papers 2001-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Serge Hayward, 2005. "The Role of Heterogeneous Agents’ Past and Forward Time Horizons in Formulating Computational Models," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 25-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-352, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ralf Ahrens & Stefan Reitz, 2003. "Heterogeneous Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Target zones and conditional volatility: the role of realignments," Working Papers 1994-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Yochanan Shachmurove & Uri BenZion & Paul Klein & Joseph Yagil, 2001. "A Moving Average Comparison of the Tel-Aviv 25 and S&P 500 Stock Indices," Penn CARESS Working Papers 4731f3394c43bebf4d3191c81, Penn Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," Working Papers 1999-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Zwart, G.J. de & Markwat, T.D. & Swinkels, L. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2007. "The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets," Research Paper ERS-2007-096-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 2000. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Working Papers 1997-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1999-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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