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Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia

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  • Lubos Pastor
  • Pietro Veronesi

Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17464.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Publication status: published as Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17464

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Scott Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics 2012-003, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  2. Bryan Kelly & Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2014. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," NBER Working Papers 19812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
  4. Croce, Mariano M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Schmid, Lukas, 2012. "The market price of fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 401-416.
  5. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working Papers 201345, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Are Stock Prices Related to Political Uncertainty Index in OECD Countries? Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Working Papers 201360, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  8. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
  10. Fabrice Roth, 2012. "Crise et régulation des marchés financiers : Quel impact sur les formes mutuelles dans l'assurance ?," Working Papers halshs-00692342, HAL.

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