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The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders

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Author Info
Leonid Kogan
Stephen Ross
Jiang Wang
Mark Westerfield
Abstract

Milton Friedman argued that irrational traders will consistently lose money, won't survive and, therefore, cannot influence long run equilibrium asset prices. Since his work, survival and price influence have been assumed to be the same. Often partial equilibrium analysis has been relied upon to examine the survival of irrational traders and to make inferences on their influence on prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that survival and influence on prices are two independent concepts. The price impact of irrational traders does not rely on their long-run survival and they can have a significant impact on asset prices even when their wealth becomes negligible. In addition, in contrast to a partial equilibrium analysis, general equilibrium considerations matter since the ability of irrational traders to impact prices even when their wealth is diminishing can significantly affect their chances for long-run survival. In sum, in a long-run equilibrium, we explicitly show that price impact can occur whether or not the irrational traders survive. In related work, we show that even if the irrational traders survive they may have no price impact.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9434.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9434

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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  1. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral Finance," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Larry G. Epstein & Alvaro Sandroni, 2003. "Non-Bayesian Updating : A Theoretical Framework," RCER Working Papers 505, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Casey B. Mulligan, 2004. "Robust Aggregate Implications of Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility," NBER Working Papers 10210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Guerdjikova, Ani, 2004. "Evolution of Wealth and Asset Prices in Markets with Case-Based Investors," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-49, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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