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Precarious Politics and Return Volatility

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  • Maria Boutchkova
  • Hitesh Doshi
  • Art Durnev
  • Alexander Molchanov
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    Abstract

    We examine how local and global political risks affect industry return volatility. Our central premise is that some industries are more sensitive to political events than others. We find that industries that are more dependent on trade, contract enforcement, and labor exhibit greater return volatility when local political risks are higher. Political uncertainty in countries of trading partners of trade-dependent industries similarly results in greater volatility. Volatility decomposition results indicate that while systematic volatility is associated with domestic political uncertainty, global political risks translate into larger idiosyncratic volatility. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 1111-1154

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:25:y:2012:i:4:p:1111-1154

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    Cited by:
    1. Kelly, Bryan & Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2014. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9822, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Wang, Jun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Dai, Lili & Ngo, Phong T. H., 2013. "Political Uncertainty and Accounting Conservatism: Evidence from the U.S. Presidential Election Cycle," MPRA Paper 43606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Arnaud Mehl, 2013. "Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    7. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," MPRA Paper 49008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2011. "Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 17464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hartwell , Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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