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Learning while voting: determinants of collective experimentation

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  • Bruno Strulovici

    () (Nuffield College, Oxford University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes collective decision making when individual preferences evolve through learning. Votes are affected by their anticipated effect on future preferences. The analysis is conducted in a two-arm bandit model with a safe alternative and a risky alternative whose payoff distribution, or “type”, varies across individuals and may be learned through experimentation. Society is shown to experiment less than any of its members would if he could dictate future decisions, and to be systematically biased against experimentation compared to the utilitarian optimum. Control sharing can even result in negative value of experimentation: society may shun a risky alternative even its expected payoff is higher than the safe one’s. Commitment to a fixed alternative can only increase efficiency if aggregate uncertainty is small enough. Even when types are independent, a positive news shock for anyone raises everyone’s incentive to experiment. Ex ante preference correlation or heterogeneity reduces these inefficiencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2008-W08.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 05 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0808

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Bergemann, Dirk & Hege, Ulrich, 2001. "The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping," CEPR Discussion Papers 2763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mattias K. Polborn & Matthias Messner, 2008. "The option to wait in collective decisions," 2008 Meeting Papers 397, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Kuran, Timur, 1988. "The tenacious past: Theories of personal and collective conservatism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 143-171, September.
  4. Cripps, Martin & Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2003. "Strategic Experimentation with Exponential Bandits," Discussion Papers in Economics 4, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Bergemann, Dirk & Hege, Ulrich, 1998. "Venture capital financing, moral hazard, and learning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 703-735, August.
  6. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December.
  7. Philippe Jehiel & Oliver Compte, 2007. "Bargaining and Majority Rules: A Collective Search Perspective," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000131, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. David A. Malueg & Shunichi O. Tsutsui, 1997. "Dynamic R&D Competition with Learning," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(4), pages 751-772, Winter.
  9. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  10. James Albrecht & Axel Anderson & Susan Vroman, 2007. "Search by Committee," Working Papers gueconwpa~07-07-09, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  11. Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris, 1999. "Strategic Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 349-374, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Benny Moldovanu & Xianwen Shi, 2010. "Search Committees," Working Papers tecipa-413, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  4. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," NBER Working Papers 17602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000321, David K. Levine.
  6. John K. -H Quah & Bruno Strulovici, 2009. "Discounting and Patience in Optimal Stopping and Control Problems," Discussion Papers 1480, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2012. "Breakdowns," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 396, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  8. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2011. "Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 8601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Ottaviani, Marco & Wickelgren, Abraham L., 2011. "Ex ante or ex post competition policy? A progress report," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 356-359, May.
  10. Christian Roessler & Sandro Shelegia & Bruno Strulovici, 2013. "The Roman Metro Problem: Dynamic Voting and the Limited Power of Commitment," Discussion Papers 1560, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  11. Shi, Xianwen & Moldovanu, Benny, 0. "Specialization and partisanship in committee search," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
  12. John Quah & Bruno Strulovici, 2011. "Discounting, Patience, and Dynamic Decision Making," Economics Series Working Papers 555, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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