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FX Counterparty Risk and Trading Activity in Currency Forward and Futures Markets

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  • Richard M. Levich

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis initiated a period of market turbulence and increased counterparty risk for financial institutions. Even though the Dodd-Frank Act is likely to exempt interbank foreign exchange trading from a central counterparty mandate, market participants have the option to trade currency futures on existing futures markets which standardize counterparty risks. Evidence for the period 2005-11 indicates that the market share of currency futures trading has grown relative to the pre-crisis period. This shift may be the result of a perceived increase in counterparty risk among banks, as well as changes in relative trading costs or changes in other institutional factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard M. Levich, 2012. "FX Counterparty Risk and Trading Activity in Currency Forward and Futures Markets," NBER Working Papers 18256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution," Working Paper 2011/10, Norges Bank.
    3. Andrew W. Lo, 2012. "Reading about the Financial Crisis: A Twenty-One-Book Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 151-178, March.
    4. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    5. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Angelo Ranaldo, 2010. "Limits to arbitrage during the crisis: funding liquidity constraints and covered interest parity," Working Papers 2010-14, Swiss National Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernández, Juan R., 2020. "Covered Interest Parity: A Stochastic Volatility Approach to Estimate the Neutral Band," MPRA Paper 100744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," NBER Working Papers 27231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," NBER Working Papers 18528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Xue Jiang & Liyan Han & Libo Yin, 2019. "Can skewness of the futures‐spot basis predict currency spot returns?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1435-1449, November.
    5. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    6. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
    8. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    9. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Kuga Iakov & Elena Kuzmina, 2016. "Covered interest parity: evidence from Russian money market," EERC Working Paper Series 16/01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    11. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "Covered interest parity lost: understanding the cross-currency basis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    12. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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