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The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

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Author Info

  • Charlotte Christiansen

    ()
    (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Angelo Ranaldo

    ()
    (Research Department, Swiss National Bank, Switzerland)

  • Paul Söderllind

    ()
    (Swiss Institute for Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen)

Abstract

To capture time-variation in the risk exposure of exchange rates, this paper suggests a factor model with stock and bond markets as the explana- tory factors- but where the betas are allowed to depend on the exchange rate volatility. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy based on 10 currencies from major industrialized countries has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods. The findings are robust to various extensions, including adding more currencies and other regime variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-15.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-15

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: carry trade; factor model; smooth transition regression; time- varying betas;

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References

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