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The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

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Author Info
Charlotte Christiansen () (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University and CREATES)
Angelo Ranaldo () (Research Department, Swiss National Bank, Switzerland)
Paul Söderllind () (Swiss Institute for Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen)

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Abstract

To capture time-variation in the risk exposure of exchange rates, this paper suggests a factor model with stock and bond markets as the explana- tory factors- but where the betas are allowed to depend on the exchange rate volatility. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy based on 10 currencies from major industrialized countries has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods. The findings are robust to various extensions, including adding more currencies and other regime variables.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-15.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-15

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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Related research
Keywords: carry trade; factor model; smooth transition regression; time- varying betas;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vistesen, Claus, 2009. "Carry Trade Fundamentals and the Financial Crisis 2007-2010," MPRA Paper 9952, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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