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Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: The Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms

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Kristin J. Forbes

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Abstract

This paper examines how devaluations affect the relative costs of labor and capital and therefore influence production, profitability, investment, and stock returns for firms in the 'crisis' country as well as competitors in the rest of the world. After developing these ideas in a small, open-economy model, the paper performs a series of empirical tests using information for about 1,100 firms in 10 commodity industries between 1996 and 2000. The empirical tests support the model's main predictions: 1) Immediately after devaluations, commodity firms in the crisis country have output growth rates about 10%-20% higher than competitors in other countries; 2) Immediately after devaluations, commodity firms in the crisis country have operating-profit growth rates about 15%-25% higher than competitors in other countries; 3) The effect of devaluations on fixed capital investment and stock returns (and therefore expected long-run output and profits) is determined by capital/labor ratios and changes in the cost of capital. For example, crisis-country firms have higher rates of capital growth and better stock performance after devaluations if they had lower capital/labor ratios and there was no substantial increase in their interest rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9053.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9053

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F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kamin, S.B., 1988. "Devaluation, External Balance, And Macroeconomic Performance: A Look At The Numbers," Princeton Studies in International Economics 62, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  2. Antonio Spilimbergo & Rupa Duttagupta, . "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 00/200, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. George Allayannis & Jane Ihrig, 2000. "The effect of markups on the exchange rate exposure of stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 661, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
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  8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
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  9. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Managers, investors, and crises : mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2399, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Exchange rates and local labor markets," Staff Reports 63, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Some "Weighty" Issues," NBER Working Papers 7497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2000. "Job Creation, Job Destruction, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 7466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "Exchange Rate Exposure," NBER Working Papers 8453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Marvin Barth & Trevor Dinmore, 1999. "Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 643, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1035, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & Kristin J. Forbes, 2004. "Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Weiner, Robert, 2006. "Do Crises Tear the Fabric of Oil Trade?," Discussion Papers dp-06-16, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dionisius A. Narjoko & Raymond Atje, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3207, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada.. [Downloadable!]
  7. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2007. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," MPRA Paper 9958, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Dionisius Narjoko & Hal Hill, 2006. "Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm-level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing," Departmental Working Papers 2006-13, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
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