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Cross-Border Trading as a Mechanism for Capital Flight: ADRs and the Argentine Crisis

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  • Sebastian Auguste
  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
  • Herman Kamil
  • Linda L. Tesar

Abstract

This paper examines the surprising performance of the Argentine stock market in the midst of the country's most recent financial crisis and the role played by ADRs in Argentine capital flight. Although Argentine investors were subject to capital controls, they were able to purchase stocks with associated ADRs for pesos in Argentina, convert them into ADRs, re-sell them in New York for dollars and deposit the dollar proceeds in U.S. bank accounts. In the paper we show that: (1) ADR discounts went as high as 60% (indicating that Argentine investors were willing to pay significant amounts in order to legally move their funds abroad), (2) the market anticipated (correctly) a 40% devaluation, (3) local market factors in Argentina became more important in pricing peso denominated stocks with associated ADRs, while the same stocks in New York were mainly priced based on global factors, (4) capital outflow using the ADR market was substantial (our estimate is between $835 million and $3.4 billion)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9343.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 2006, 1259-1295
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9343

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
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  3. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. " Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1059-85, July.
  4. Feldstein, Martin, 2002. "Argentina's Fall: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 2959849, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Forbes, Kristin, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," Working papers 4379-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2002. "Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally?," NBER Working Papers 8994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christine X. Jiang, 1998. "Diversification with American Depository Receipts: The Dynamics and the Pricing Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5&6), pages 683-699.
  8. Alan G. Ahearne & William L. Griever & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of U.S. holdings of foreign equities," International Finance Discussion Papers 691, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67.
  10. Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. " A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September.
  11. Melvin, Michael, 2003. "A stock market boom during a financial crisis?: ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 129-136, October.
  12. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  13. Kim, Minho & Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 2000. "Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1359-1382, August.
  14. Alexander, Gordon J & Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1987. " Asset Pricing and Dual Listing on Foreign Capital Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 151-58, March.
  15. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 2001. "Exchange rates and firms' liquidity: evidence from ADRs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 297-325, June.
  16. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-24, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marcos Chamon & Marcio Garcia, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil: effective?," Textos para discussão 606, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006. "International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price," Business School Working Papers 2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  3. Auguste, Sebastian & Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Kamil, Herman & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1259-1295, October.
  4. Eduardo Yeyati & Sergio Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2009. "Crises, Capital Controls, and Financial Integration," Working Papers id:2099, eSocialSciences.
  5. Marina Halac & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Distributional effects of crises : the role of financial transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3173, The World Bank.
  6. Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2005. "International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 11353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jillian Faucette & Alexander Rothenberg & Francis Warnock, 2005. "Outflows-induced sudden stops," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 119-129.
  9. Brahima Coulibaly, 2009. "Currency unions and currency crises: an empirical assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 199-221.

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