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Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles

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Author Info
HARRISON HONG
JOSÉ SCHEINKMAN
WEI XIONG

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Abstract

We model the relationship between asset float (tradeable shares) and speculative bubbles. Investors with heterogeneous beliefs and short-sales constraints trade a stock with limited float because of insider lockups. A bubble arises as price overweighs optimists' beliefs and investors anticipate the option to resell to those with even higher valuations. The bubble's size depends on float as investors anticipate an increase in float with lockup expirations and speculate over the degree of insider selling. Consistent with the internet experience, the bubble, turnover, and volatility decrease with float and prices drop on the lockup expiration date. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00867.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 1073-1117
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:3:p:1073-1117

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," NBER Working Papers 11362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. José M. Marín & Jacques Olivier, 2007. "The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes," Working Papers 2007-20, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Basak, Suleyman & Chabakauri, Georgy, 2009. "Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jie Zhu, 2008. "Testing for Expected Return and Market Price of Risk in Chinese A-B Share Market: A Geometric Brownian Motion and Multivariate GARCH Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2008-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & Rene M. Stulz, 2004. "Do Acquirers With More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less From Acquisitions?," NBER Working Papers 10773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & Rene M. Schultz, 2004. "Do Acquirers With More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less From Acquisitions?," Working Papers 05-17, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Understanding Commercial Real Estate: Just How Different from Housing Is It?," NBER Working Papers 14708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anderson, Anders, 2005. "Is Online Trading Gambling with Peanuts?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 06-02, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  12. Moeller, Sara B. & Schilngemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Do Acquirers with More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less from Acquisitions?," Working Paper Series 2004-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2007. "Short-Sale Constraints and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: An Event Study Approach," MPRA Paper 4995, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Feb 2009. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of Chinese A-B Share Premia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000867, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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