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Stocks as Money: Convenience Yield and the Tech-Stock Bubble

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

What caused the rise and fall of tech stocks? I argue that a mechanism much like the transactions demand for money drove many stock prices above the 'fundamental value' they would have had in a frictionless market. I start with the Palm/3Com microcosm and then look at tech stocks in general. High prices are associated with high volume, high volatility, low supply of shares, wide dispersion of opinion, and restrictions on long-term short selling. I review competing theories, and only the convenience yield view makes all these connections.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8987.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8987

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Cited by:
  1. Guerdjikova, Ani, 2006. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices in an Economy Populated by Case-Based Decision Makers," Working Papers 06-13, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  2. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," NBER Working Papers 11362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, 06.
  4. Ofek, Eli & Richardson, Matthew & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2004. "Limited arbitrage and short sales restrictions: evidence from the options markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 305-342, November.
  5. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices," CARF F-Series CARF-F-313, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2008. "Bubbles and crashes with partially sophisticated investors," Working Papers halshs-00586045, HAL.
  8. J. Scheinkman & W. Xiong, 2002. "Overconfidence, Short-Sale Constraints and Bubbles," Princeton Economic Theory Working Papers 98734966f1c1a57373801367f, David K. Levine.
  9. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of Chinese A-B Share Premia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000867, UCLA Department of Economics.
  10. Bogan, Vicki, 2009. "Bubbles or convenience yields? A theoretical explanation with evidence from technology company equity carve-outs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-281, March.
  11. Bejan, Camelia & Bidian, Florin, 2010. "Limited enforcement, bubbles and trading in incomplete markets," MPRA Paper 36819, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Feb 2012.
  12. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
  13. Benjamin Eden, 2007. "International Seigniorage Payments," 2007 Meeting Papers 54, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Patrick Bolton & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Executive Compensation and Short-Termist Behaviour in Speculative Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 577-610.
  15. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2003. "Limited Arbitrage and Short Sales Restrictions: Evidence from the Options Markets," NBER Working Papers 9423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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