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Investment Plans and Stock Returns

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Author Info
Owen A. Lamont (University of Chicago and NBER)
Abstract

When the discount rate falls, investment should rise. Thus with time-varying discount rates and instantly changing investment, investment should positively covary with current stock returns and negatively covary with future stock returns. Aggregate nonresidential U.S. investment contradicts both these implications, probably because of investment lags. Investment plans, however, satisfy both implications. These investment plans, from a U.S. government survey of firms, are highly informative measures of expected investment and explain more than three-quarters of the variation in real annual aggregate investment growth. Plans have substantial forecasting power for excess stock returns, showing that time-varying risk premia affect investment. Copyright The American Finance Association 2000.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2000)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2719-2745
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:6:p:2719-2745

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  7. Francois Gourio & Anil K Kashyap, 2007. "Investment Spikes: New Facts And A General Equilibrium Exploration," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-006, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Owen Lamont, 2004. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," NBER Working Papers 10659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hui Guo, 2002. "Stock market returns, volatility, and future output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 75-86. [Downloadable!]
  12. Daniel M. Covitz & Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2004. "Market discipline in banking reconsidered: the roles of funding manager decisions and deposit insurance reform," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2004. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 10563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Owen A. Lamont, 2002. "Evaluating Value Weighting: Corporate Events and Market Timing," NBER Working Papers 9049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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