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Revisions of Investment Plans and the Stock Market Rate of Return

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Author Info
Mark Schankerman
Abstract

This paper explores the sources of uncertainty that cause firms to revise their capital investment plans and the stock market to revise its valuation of those firms. A simple method is developed to decompose the uncertainty governing revisions in investment plans and the stock market rate of return into micro, sectoral and aggregate components; and to measure the degree of heterogeneity in micro responses to common disturbances. The method is applied to a panel data set of firms in the U.S. economy for the period 1950-1973. The empirical results show that the capital investment decision is governed primarily by idiosyncratic uncertainty, but common disturbances are more important for movements in the stock market rate of return.

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Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers with number 05.

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Date of creation: Nov 1991
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stieip:05

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Keywords: capital investment plans; revisions; uncertainty; common disturbances; stock market rate of return.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen Bond & Costas Meghir, 1990. "Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0013, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG.
    Other versions:
  3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1987. "Micro Shocks and Aggregate Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 395-409, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lach, Saul & Schankerman, Mark, 1989. "Dynamics of R&D and Investment in the Scientific Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 880-904, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bronwyn Hall & Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Research and Development As An Investment," NBER Working Papers 2973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fumio Hayashi & Tohru Inoue, 1990. "The Relation Between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," NBER Working Papers 3326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1990. "Inventories and the Propagation of Sectoral Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 170-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Altug, Sumru & Miller, Robert A, 1990. "Household Choices in Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 543-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. Konings & H. Lehmann & M.E. Schaffer, 1996. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Transition Economy: Ownership, Firm Size," CERT Discussion Papers 9611, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Owen Lamont, 1999. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 6973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Sutton, 2001. "Rich Trades, Scarce Capabilities: Industrial Development Revisited," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 28, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  4. Johansson, Anders & Modén, Karl-Markus, 1997. "Investment Plan Revisions and Share Price Volatility," Working Paper 57, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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