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Revisions and Investment Plans and the Stock Market Rate of Return

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Author Info
Mark Schankerman
Abstract

This paper explores the sources of uncertainty that cause firms to revise their capital investment plans and the stock market to revise its valuation of those firms. A simple method is developed to decompose the uncertainty governing revisions in investment plans and the stock market rate of return in micro, setoral and aggregate components, and to measure the degree of heterogeneity in micro responses to common disturbances. The method is applied to a panel data set of firms in the U.S. economy for the period 1950-1973. The empirical results show that the capital investment decision is governed primarily by idiosyncratic uncertainty, but common disturbances are more important for movements in the stock market rate of return.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3937.

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Date of creation: Dec 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3937

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen Bond & Costas Meghir, 1990. "Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0013, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG.
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  3. Ariel Pakes, 1991. "Dynamic Structural Models: Problems and Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls and Market Interactions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 984, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1992. "An Alternative Theory of Firm and Industry Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1041, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1990. "Kinked Adjustment Costs and Aggregate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 237-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-1), pages 141-206. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Bronwyn H. Hall and Fumio Hayashi., 1989. "Research and Development as an Investment," Economics Working Papers 89-108, University of California at Berkeley.
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  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1990. "Inventories and the Propagation of Sectoral Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 170-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Altug, Sumru & Miller, Robert A, 1990. "Household Choices in Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 543-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-22, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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