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The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments

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  • Gallegati, Marco
  • Ramsey, James B.

Abstract

The literature on aggregate investment has recently shifted attention away from the stock market in favor of the bond market as a consequence of the disappointing empirical results of stock market's Q and the ability of credit spreads to forecast investment and output growth. In this paper we examine the different information content of Tobin's Q and corporate bond spread for aggregate investments in the US by means of wavelet analysis. The evidence shows that equity and bond markets’ information contents are complementary each other rather than alternative. In particular, a progressive shift in the respective contributions of stock market's Q and the relative price of corporate bonds for aggregate investments emerges when moving from higher to lower scales, the contribution of stock market's Q being predominant at higher scales, whereas that of the relative price of corporate bonds has a tendency to increase as the time scale decreases.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2014. "The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:75:y:2014:i:c:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.04.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wavelet analysis; Q theory; Stock market prices; Corporate bond prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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