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Stock market and investment : the signaling role of the market

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  • Samuel, Cherian
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    Abstract

    The author examines the role of the stock market as a signal to managers in undertaking capital expenditures. He concludes that while both managerial and market perceptions are integral, managerial perception is of greater importance. The evidence suggeststhat, as a statistic, the Q ratio is not sufficient to explain firms'capital expenditure decisions. Thus, the standard Q model of investment should be modified to provide a more meaningful description of a firm's capital spending decisions. Overall, the results suggest that stock market activity has only limited implications for the economy's resource allocation process. Evidence for the Q theory of investment confirms previous findings in the literature that the model's poor empirical perfomance was partly the result of using aggregate data for the whole economy. Also, since market perception plays only a limited role in determining capital expenditures, shareholder myopia is unlikely to result in managerial myopia. The implications for developing countries are: while the stock market may not be central to a firm's capital spending decisions, it is not a sideshow either. The market plays an important signaling role for managers. This is a powerful rationale for financial reform and capital development in developing countries. The results also suggest that complaints that stock market activity leads to misallocation of resources may be exaggerated.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1612.

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    Date of creation: 31 May 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1612

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    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Markets and Market Access; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Markets and Market Access; Environmental Economics&Policies; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Economic Theory&Research; Access to Markets;

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    1. Marsh, Paul, 1982. " The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 121-44, March.
    2. Long, Millard & Rutkowska, Izabela, 1995. "The role of commercial banks in enterprise restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1423, The World Bank.
    3. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    4. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
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    13. Schaller, Huntley, 1990. "A Re-examination of the Q Theory of Investment Using U.S. Firm Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-25, Oct.-Dec..
    14. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen & Devereux, Michael & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1992. "Investment and Tobin's Q: Evidence from company panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 233-257.
    15. Stanley Fischer & Robert C. Merton, 1985. "Macroeconomics and Finance: The Role of the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 1291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    18. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1990. "Stock Market Volatility And Investment: Do Only Fundamental Matter?," Working Papers 90-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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    21. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July.
    23. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 527-300.
    24. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mapa, Dennis S. & Briones, Kristine Joy S., 2006. "Measuring the Common Component of Stock Market Fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific Region," MPRA Paper 21247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bolbol, Ali A. & Omran, Mohammad M., 2005. "Investment and the stock market: evidence from Arab firm-level panel data," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 85-106, April.

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