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Uncertainty and the slowdown of capital accumulation in Europe

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Author Info
Paola Caselli
Patrizio Pagano
Fabiano Schivardi

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Abstract

The slowdown in the process of capital formation in continental Europe in the 1990s is analysed. Sector-level data from the OECD's International Sectoral Data Base (ISDB) are used. Econometric estimates of an investment function indicate structural instability in the early 1990s and, specifically, a break in the coefficient linking the growth of capital stock to demand. This result neither seems to be related to non-linearities in the relationship between capital formation and expected demand, nor to the sectoral composition of European economies. Evidence is found that the drop in the accelerator is at least partly attributable to greater demand uncertainty in the 1990s as compared with the earlier period.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 79-89
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:79-89

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  1. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Econometric Studies of Investment Behavior: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1111-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
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  5. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Caselli, P. & Pagano, P. & Schivardi, F., 2000. "Investment and Growth in Europe and in the United States in the Nineties," Papers 372, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  7. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2007. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence froma a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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