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Uncertainty and the slowdown of capital accumulation in Europe

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  • Paola Caselli
  • Patrizio Pagano
  • Fabiano Schivardi

Abstract

The slowdown in the process of capital formation in continental Europe in the 1990s is analysed. Sector-level data from the OECD's International Sectoral Data Base (ISDB) are used. Econometric estimates of an investment function indicate structural instability in the early 1990s and, specifically, a break in the coefficient linking the growth of capital stock to demand. This result neither seems to be related to non-linearities in the relationship between capital formation and expected demand, nor to the sectoral composition of European economies. Evidence is found that the drop in the accelerator is at least partly attributable to greater demand uncertainty in the 1990s as compared with the earlier period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 79-89

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:79-89

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1996. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 12, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  2. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February.
  3. Paola Caselli & Patrizio Pagano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2000. "Investment and Growth in Europe and in the United States in the Nineties," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 372, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  6. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Econometric Studies of Investment Behavior: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1111-47, December.
  7. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2007. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence froma a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Gianluca Femminis, 2012. "Risk aversion heterogeneity and the investment-uncertainty relationship," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Teoria Economica e Metodi Quantitativi itemq1260, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  3. Femminis, Gianluca, 2008. "Risk-aversion and the investment-uncertainty relationship: The role of capital depreciation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 585-591, March.

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