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Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data

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Author Info

  • Ciaran Driver

    (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College, London)

  • Paul Temple

    (University of Surrey)

  • Giovanni Urga

    (Cass Business School, London)

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory. Using panel data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, we report OLS estimates of the impact of uncertainty on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross-sectional averages of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors, as recently suggested by Pesaran (2004). The cross-industry pattern of results is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options theory, using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics. We find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected, but only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay. There is also evidence for expansion options effects; industries with high R&D and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0405.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0405

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Keywords: Investment; Industry; Irreversibility; Real Options; Uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
  2. Bronwyn Hall & Jacques Mairesse, 1998. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An exploration of what we have learned in twenty years," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March.
  4. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, . "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  6. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
  7. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February.
  8. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  10. Owen Lamont, . "Investment Plans and Stock Returns."," CRSP working papers 488, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  11. Proietti, Tommaso, 1996. "Persistence of Shocks on Seasonal Processes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 383-98, July-Aug..
  12. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
  13. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  14. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
  15. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2001. "Irreversible Investment with Strategic Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  17. Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "The effect of uncertainty on UK investment authorisation: Homogenous vs. heterogeneous estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 115-128, January.
  18. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  19. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Vivek Ghosal, 2003. "Endemic Volatility of Firms and Establishments: Are Real Options Effects Important?," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-13, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  2. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2000. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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