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A vectorautoregressive investment model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission: panel evidence from German firms

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  • Ulf von Kalckreuth

Abstract

This paper proposes a new framework for studying the effects of monetary policy on business investment. Important ambiguities with the modeling of investment dynamics and interactions between real and financial decisions suggest modeling investment spending as a VAR. Based on a panel of financial statement data for 6,408 German firms (44,345 datapoints) supplemented with user costs of capital and confidential measures of creditworthiness, we generate GMM estimates of a Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM). It contains investment and cash flow as endogenous variables, and the user costs of capital and sales growth as additional explanatory variables. We report four substantive findings. First, monetary policy matters, and business investment is responsive to interest rates embedded in the user cost of capital. Second, allowing real and financial decisions to interact raises the impact of monetary policy by one-third relative to simulations of an investment equation in isolation that assumes an exogenous financial policy. Third, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow shocks is raised by twothirds relative to single equation computations. Fourth, firms with poor credit ratings are "paralysed" in being unable to react to changing economic conditions as given by relative prices or demand. On the other hand and consistent with binding financing constraints, these endangered firms show a high responsiveness to cash flow shocks. Apart from these substantive conclusions, this paper demonstrate that the panel VAR approach is useful for modeling firm dynamics and real/financial interactions and for assessing monetary policy transmission. -- In diesem Papier wird ein neuer Rahmen für die Untersuchung der Wirkungen von Geldpolitik auf privatwirtschaftliche Investitionen vorgeschlagen. Wegen ungelöster Probleme bei der Modellierung der Investitionsdynamik und der Interaktion zwischen realwirtschaftlicher und der finanzieller Sphäre einer Unternehmung biete

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 with number 107.

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Date of creation: 27 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:107

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  2. Robert S. Chirinko, 1996. "Finance constraints, liquidity, and investment spending: theoretical restrictions and international evidence," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 96-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ulf von Kalckreuth & Emma Murphy, 2005. "Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: evidence from a large panel of survey data," Bank of England working papers 260, Bank of England.
  2. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
  3. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2005. "Money Growth and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. W.A. Bruinshoofd, 2003. "Corporate Investment and Financing Constraints: Connections with Cash Management," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued), Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department 734, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Issouf Samaké, 2008. "Investment and Growth Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 08/120, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80 Bank for International Settlements.

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