A vectorautoregressive investment model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission: panel evidence from German firms
Abstract
This paper proposes a new framework for studying the effects of monetary policy on business investment. Important ambiguities with the modeling of investment dynamics and interactions between real and financial decisions suggest modeling investment spending as a VAR. Based on a panel of financial statement data for 6,408 German firms (44,345 datapoints) supplemented with user costs of capital and confidential measures of creditworthiness, we generate GMM estimates of a Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) containing investment, cash flow, sales, and the user cost of capital. We report four substantive findings. First, monetary policy matters, and business investment is responsive to interest rates embedded in the user cost of capital. Second, allowing real and financial decisions to interact raises the impact of monetary policy by one-third relative to simulations of an investment equation in isolation that assumes an exogenous financial policy. Third, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow shocks is raised by two-thirds relative to single equation computations appearing in the literature. Fourth, firms with poor credit ratings are âparalyzed" in being unable to react to changing economic conditions as given by relative prices or demand. On the other hand and consistent with binding financing constraints, these endangered firms show a high responsiveness to cash flow shocks. Apart from these substantive conclusions, this paper demonstrate that the panel VAR approach is useful for modeling firm dynamics and real/financial interactions and for assessing monetary policy transmission.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 with number 107.Length:
Date of creation: 27 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:107
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Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S. & Breitung, Jörg, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Jorg Breitung & Robert S Chirinko, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 213, Royal Economic Society.
- Joerg Breitung & Robert Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) And Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence From German Firms," Emory Economics 0307, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Issouf Samaké, 2008. "Investment and Growth Dynamics: An Empirical Assessment Applied to Benin," IMF Working Papers 08/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Ulf von Kalckreuth & Emma Murphy, 2005.
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- Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003.
"Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
- von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2000. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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