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Investment and Uncertainty: A Theory-based Empirical Approach

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Mikael Carlsson

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Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of uncertainty on firm-level capital accumulation. A novelty in this paper is that the firm-level uncertainty indicator is motivated and derived from a theoretical model, the neoclassical investment model with time to build. This model also serves as the base for the empirical work, where an error-correction approach is employed. I find a negative effect of uncertainty on capital accumulation, both in the short run and the long run. This outcome cannot be explained by the model alone. Instead, the results suggest that the predominant mechanism at work stems from irreversibility constraints. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00464.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2007)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 603-617
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:69:y:2007:i:5:p:603-617

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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bronwyn H. Hall & Jacques Mairesse & Benoit Mulkay & Jacques Mairesse, 1999. "Firm Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," Econometrics 9902001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mikael Carlsson, 2003. "Measures of Technology and the Short-run Response to Technology Shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 105(4), pages 555-579, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bond, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 2007. "Microeconometric Models of Investment and Employment," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 65 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  7. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Carlsson, Mikael & Laséen, Stefan, 2002. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?," Working Paper Series 143, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chirinko, Robert S & Schaller, Huntley, 1995. "Why Does Liquidity Matter in Investment Equations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 527-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 1-54. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Berg, Lennart & Berger, Tommy, 2005. "The Q theory and the Swedish housing market –an empirical test," Working Paper Series 2005:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Johansson, Fredrik & Klevmarken, Anders, 2006. "Explaining the size and nature of response in a survey on health status and economic standard," Working Paper Series 2006:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Engström, Per & Holmlund, Bertil, 2005. "Worker Absenteeism in Search Equilibrium," Working Paper Series 2005:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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