Irreversible Investment and Knightian Uncertainty

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Irreversible Investment and Knightian Uncertainty

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Kiyohiko G. Nishimura (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Hiroyuki Ozaki (Faculty of Economics, Tohoku University)

Abstract

When firms decide about irreversible investment, they may not have perfect confidence about their perceived probability measure describing future uncertainty. They may think other probability measures perturbed from the original one are also probable. Uncertainty characterized by not a single probability measure but a set of probability measures is called Knightian uncertainty. The effect of Knightian uncertainty on the value of irreversible investment opportunity is shown to be drastically different from that of the traditional uncertainty in the form of risk. Specifically, an increase in Knightian uncertainty decreases the value of investment opportunity while an increase in risk increases it.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-176.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf176

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2002-10-08 (All new papers)
NEP-ENT-2002-10-08 (Entrepreneurship)

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Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2002. "Economics of Self-Feeding Fear," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-175, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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