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The Growth of Firms in Theory and in Practice

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Author Info
Geroski, Paul A

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Abstract

This paper is a reflective survey of past and recent econometric work on the growth of firms. Most of this work suggests that firm size follows a random walk; i.e. that corporate growth rates are random. The survey documents this, and shows what a strong result this is by contrasting it with several alternative (and rather obvious) models which might be used to explain corporate growth rates but which are basically inconsistent with the data. The survey also discusses complementary evidence on corporate innovation rates and adjustment costs in investment/employment decisions which is consistent with (and therefore provide some support for) these results. This particular result is striking for a number of reasons, not least because it is basically inconsistent with most theories of the growth of firms which have be developed over the years. It is also inconsistent with the recently fashionable resource based theory of the firm. The second half of this essay identified how and why these theories of growth seem to be inconsistent with the data.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2092.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2092

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Related research
Keywords: Gibrat's Law; Growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Geroski, Paul A, 1998. "An Applied Econometrician's View of Large Company Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 1862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. You, Jong-Il, 1995. "Small Firms in Economic Theory," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 441-62, June.
  5. Garnsey, Elizabeth, 1998. "A Theory of the Early Growth of the Firm," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 523-56, September.
  6. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Cynthia A. Montgomery & Birger Wernerfelt, 1988. "Diversification, Ricardian Rents, and Tobin's q," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 623-632, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chandler, Alfred Jr., 1992. "What is a firm? : A historical perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 483-492, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mueller, Dennis C, 1972. "A Life Cycle Theory of the Firm," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 199-219, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Slater, Martin, 1980. "The Managerial Limitation to the Growth of Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(3593), pages 520-28, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Elena Cefis, 1996. "Is there any persistence in innovative activities?," Department of Economics Working Papers 9606, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  14. Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1995. "Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 47-65, February.
  15. Geroski, P. A. & Van Reenen, J. & Walters, C. F., 1997. "How persistently do firms innovate?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 33-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Geroski, Paul A & Machin, Stephen & Walters, Christopher F, 1997. "Corporate Growth and Profitability," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2), pages 171-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hart, Peter E & Oulton, Nicholas, 1996. "Growth and Size of Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1242-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Moore, John, 1992. "The firm as a collection of assets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 493-507, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 1-54. [Downloadable!]
  22. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alex Coad & Rekha Rao & Federico Tamagni, 2008. "Growth Processes of Italian Manufacturing Firms," LEM Papers Series 2008/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marco Corsino & Roberto Gabriele & Enrico Zaninotto, 2008. "Organizational capabilities and industry dynamics: a computational model," DISA Working Papers 0809, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 18 Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Zélia Serrasqueiro & Paulo Maçãs Nunes, 2008. "Performance and size: empirical evidence from Portuguese SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 195-217, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Elena Cefis & Matteo Ciccarelli & Luigi Orsenigo, 2004. "Testing Gibrat's Legacy: A Bayesian Approach to Study the Growth of Firms," Working Papers 05-02, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Marco Lippi & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2001. "Innovation and Corporate Growth in the Evolution of the Drug Industry," LEM Papers Series 2001/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. F. Lotti & E. Santarelli, 2001. "Industry Dynamics and the Distiribution of Firm Sizes: A Non-Parametric Apporoach," Working Papers 406, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Alex Coad, 2006. "Understanding the processes of firm Growth - a closer look at serial growth rate correlation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  8. Toke Reichsteicn & Michael Dahl, 2004. "Are Firm Growth Rates Random? Analysing Pattern and Dependencies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 225-246, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Francesca Lotti & Marco Vivarelli & Enrico Santarelli, 2004. "Gibrat's Law and Market Selection," Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 2004-28, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. Machiel van Dijk & Önder Nomaler, 2000. "Technological Diffusion Patterns and their Effects on Industrial Dynamics," DRUID Working Papers 00-6, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alex Coad, 2006. "A Closer Look at Serial Growth Rate Correlation," LEM Papers Series 2006/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Explaining the Distribution of Firms Growth Rates," LEM Papers Series 2005/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Toke Reichstein & Morten Berg Jensen, 2003. "Analyzing the Distributions of the Stochastic Firm Growth Approach," DRUID Working Papers 03-12, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  14. Otto, Anne & Fornahl, Dirk, 2008. "Long-term growth determinants of young businesses in Germany : effects of regional concentration and specialisation," IAB Discussion Paper 200813, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
  15. Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessandra Luzzi, 2004. "Do Liquidity Constraints Matter in Explaining Firm Size and Growth? Some Evidence from the Italian Manufacturing Industry," LEM Papers Series 2004/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Alex Coad & Rekha Rao, 2006. "Innovation and firm growth in "complex technology" sectors : a quantile regression approach," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06050, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Aslan, Alper, 2008. "Testing Gibrat’s law: empirical evidence from panel unit root tests of turkish firms," MPRA Paper 10594, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. F. Lotti & E. Santarelli & M. Vivarelli, 2003. "Gibrat's Law and Market Selection in the Radio, TV & Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Working Papers 478, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  19. Alexander Coad & Rekha Rao, 2007. "Firm Growth and R&D Expenditure," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-10, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  20. Giovanni Dosi & Marco Faillo & Luigi Marengo, 2003. "Organizational Capabilities, Patterns of Knowledge Accumulation and Governance Structures in Business Firms. An Introduction," LEM Papers Series 2003/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  21. Orietta Marsili, 2006. "Stability and Turbulence in the Size Distribution of Firms: Evidence from Dutch Manufacturing," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 255-272, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Yosuke Okada, 2005. "Competition and Productivity in Japanese Manufacturing Industries," NBER Working Papers 11540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Blandina Oliveira & Adelino Fortunato, 2005. "Firm Growth and Persistence of Chance: Evidence from Portuguese Microdata," GEMF Working Papers 2005-10, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  24. Alexander Coad, 2007. "Disentangling the firm growth process: evidence from a recursive panel VAR," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-15, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  25. Emiliano Santoro, 2006. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and the firms' rate of growth distribution: evidence from UK and US quoted companies," Department of Economics Working Papers 0606, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
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