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Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries

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  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

  • Dominique Pépin

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

Abstract

This paper first shows that the long-run money demand in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is better described by an open-economy model (OEM), which considers a currency substitution effect, than by a closed-economy model (CEM) used in several previous studies. Second, from the estimated models we derive two different measures of monetary overhang. Then we compare the ability of the OEM-based and the CEM-based measures of monetary overhang to predict inflation in the CEE countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. While we cannot detect a significant difference of forecast accuracy between the two competing models, we show that the OEM-based forecast model that reveals a stable long-run money demand encompasses the CEM-based version for the CEE countries.

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  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Post-Print hal-01720319, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01720319
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2018.33.4.841
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation forecasts; money demand stability; CEE countries; currency substitution; monetary overhang;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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