Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment for Central Europe
AbstractThis paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the ECB regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find some in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-Ã -vis some benchmark models, such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2010/05.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC
Central Europe; forecasting; inflation; money.;
Other versions of this item:
- Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011. "Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-03-26 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-03-26 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-03-26 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-03-26 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Jane M. Binner & Peter Tino & Jonathan Tepper & Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Graham Kendall, 2009.
"Does money matter in inflation forecasting?,"
2009-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2006.
"Money Demand and Disinflation in Selected CEECs during the Accession to the EU,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
1232, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Money demand and disinflation in selected CEECs during the accession to the EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1259-1267.
- Galina Hale & Òscar Jordà, 2007. "Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr13.
- Balazs Egert & Lubos Komarek, 2005.
"Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?,"
2005/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
- Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008.
"Monetary Factors and Inflation in Japan,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007.
"Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000.
"The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0976, Econometric Society.
- Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003.
"Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?,"
Departmental Working Papers
200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
- Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2006.
"Long-run money demand in the new EU Member States with exchange rate effects,"
Working Paper Series
0628, European Central Bank.
- Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 75-94, April.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Tan Khay Boon, 1999. "Small sample estimation of a cointegrating vector: an empirical evaluation of six estimation techniques," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 645-648.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
- Tom Doan, . "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Phillips, Peter C B, 1994.
"Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-93, January.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1039, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
- Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes & Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECBâ€™s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 08/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2001.
"Monetary policy analysis in models without money,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 145-164.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
- Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
- Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, August.
- Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa & Basiru Fatai, 2013. "Modelling the Demand for Money in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 635-647.
- Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.