Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence
AbstractThe ECB is the only major central bank that still emphasizes the role of money in monetary policy management. In this paper, we bring some support to this approach. Taking into account Euro area data from the period between 1999 and 2007, we demonstrate that a steady 10 per cent increase in M3 may result in an inflation rate of approximately 2½ percentage points. A negative output gap would have a short term offsetting effect, and vice versa.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School in its series ESSEC Working Papers with number DR 08012.
Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
ECB; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Money;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-07-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2008-07-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-07-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-07-14 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006.
"Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
- Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Paolo Surico, 2007. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(1), pages 115-135, 03.
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006.
"How the ECB and the US Fed Set Interest Rates,"
Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut fÃ¼r Volkswirtschaftslehre der UniversitÃ¤t Hohenheim
269/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2007. "The ECB monetary policy: Choices and challenges," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 181-194.
- Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
- Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007.
"Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs,"
Working Paper Series
2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
- PÃ¤r Ã–sterholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," IMF Working Papers 08/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Jesus Garcia-Iglesias, 2007. "How the European Central Bank decided its early monetary policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 927-936.
- Edward Nelson, 2008.
"Why Money Growth Determines Inflation in the Long Run: Answering the Woodford Critique,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1791-1814, December.
- Edward Nelson, 2008. "Why money growth determines inflation in the long run: answering the Woodford critique," Working Papers 2008-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011.
"Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
- Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Filip Rozsypal, 2010. "Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment for Central Europe," Working Papers 2010/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sophie Magnanou).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.