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Why Money Growth Determines Inflation in the Long Run: Answering the Woodford Critique

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  • EDWARD NELSON

Abstract

Woodford argues that it is not appropriate to regard inflation in the steady state of New Keynesian models as determined by steady-state money growth. Woodford instead argues that the intercept term in the monetary authority's interest rate policy rule determines steady-state inflation. In this paper, I offer an alternative interpretation of steady-state behavior, according to which it is appropriate to regard steady-state inflation as determined by steady-state money growth. The argument relies on traditional interpretations of the central bank's power in the long run and appeals to model properties that are common to textbook and New Keynesian analysis. According to this argument, the only way the central bank can control interest rates in the long run is via affecting inflation, and its only means available for determining inflation is by determining the money growth rate. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1791-1814

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:8:p:1791-1814

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
  2. De Fiore, Fiorella & Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "Bank finance versus bond finance: what explains the differences between US and Europe?," Working Paper Series 0547, European Central Bank.
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  18. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest rates and inflation," Working Papers 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. James Tobin & Willem H. Buiter, 1974. "Long Run Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 384, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  20. Nelson, Edward, 2007. "Comment on: Samuel Reynard, "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1472-1479, July.
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Citations

Blog mentions

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  1. What Monetarism Really Wasnâ??t
    by Josh in The everyday economist on 2011-05-05 03:51:07
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Cited by:
  1. Rubens Penha Cysne & David Turchick, 2010. "Money Supply and Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1173-1184, 09.
  2. Barthélemy, J. & Clerc L. & Marx, M., 2008. "A Two-Pillar DSGE Monetary Policy Model for the Euro Area," Working papers 219, Banque de France.
  3. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2010. "Money and Risk Aversion in a DSGE Framework: A Bayesian Application to the Euro Zone," ESSEC Working Papers DR 10005, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  4. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
  5. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2013. "Education, Endogenous Human Capital, and Monetary Economic Growth with MIU Approach," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 100-118, July.
  6. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009. "The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
  8. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  9. Steffen Ahrens, Dennis Snower, 2012. "Envy, Guilt, and the Phillips Curve," Kiel Working Papers 1754, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Instability: Monetary and Real," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 830, Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. Michael Bleaney & Sharmila Devadas, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Inflows in Emerging Markets: How Much Are They Sterilised?," Discussion Papers 13/01, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
  12. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "(When) does money growth help to predict Euro-area inflation at low frequencies?," Discussion Papers 2013/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

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