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Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates

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  • Hegerty, Scott W.

Abstract

With the transition from planned economic systems to membership in the European Union, capital inflows and domestic credit have expanded tremendously in Central and Eastern Europe. Four of these countries--Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria--maintain fixed exchange-rate regimes, which may face pressure because of rapid credit growth or during a slowdown. This study uses a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach to assess the contribution of capital inflows to exchange market pressure in these four countries, as well as to the growth of domestic credit. Both FDI and non-FDI flows are shown to feed credit growth in Bulgaria, but not the Baltics. Relatively volatile flows, particularly non-FDI inflows, reduce EMP in three of the four countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 155-167

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:155-167

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Keywords: Capital inflows Credit Exchange market pressure Transition economies;

References

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  1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 106-123, May.
  2. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention in Interdependent Economies: A Two-Country Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 72-82, February.
  3. Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Bal�zs �gert & Peter Back� & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Private-Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 201-231, June.
  5. André Van Poeck & Jacques Vanneste & Maret Veiner, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 459-485, 06.
  6. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility, and the Impact on Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 478-493, 08.
  7. Heather D Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2003. "Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States," Working Papers 06, Bank of Greece.
  8. Hans-Peter Lankes & A. J. Venables, 1996. "Foreign direct investment in economic transition: the changing pattern of investments," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 331-347, October.
  9. Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: a dynamic panel analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-22, March.
  10. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  11. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Olga Arratibel & Davide Furceri & Reiner Martin & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries," Working Papers 0934, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  2. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
  3. Scott W Hegerty, 2010. "Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2210-2219.
  4. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
  5. Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "How integrated are the exchange markets of the Baltic Sea Region? An examination of market pressure and its contagion," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 109-122, December.
  6. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
  7. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.
  8. Martin, Reiner & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  9. Brixiova, Zuzana & Vartia, Laura & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2010. "Capital flows and the boom-bust cycle: The case of Estonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 55-72, March.

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