Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations
In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007
AbstractThis article addresses the role of the inflation target with respect to inflation expectations developments using the vector error correction (VECM) and block restriction vector autoregression (VAR) models, based on the monthly data of 1999-2007. The econometric analysis performed has not identified any grounds in support of the â€œhypercredibleâ€ inflation target hypothesis, under which a 1 pp decrease would be accompanied by a decrease of inflation expectations by more than 1 pp. The results however suggest that the inflation target is a major determinant of inflation expectations, its importance for creating the inflation expectations surpassing even that of the current inflation development. Another conclusion is that inflation expectations decrease significantly in response to a stricter monetary policy and to the lower inflation target. On the overall, the results imply that the monetary policy has anchored the inflation expectations.
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Inflation expectations; inflation target; Czech National Bank;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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Departmental Working Papers
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- Tomas Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 4, pages 47-56 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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