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Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?

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Author Info

  • Michael J. Dueker
  • Andreas M. Fischer

Abstract

Ten years of empirical studies of inflation targeting have not uncovered clear evidence that monetary policy that incorporates formal targets imparts better inflation performance. The authors survey the literature and find that the "no difference" verdict concerning inflation targeting has been robust to a wide range of countries and methods of analysis, starting with a study by Dueker and Fischer (1996a). The authors present updated Markov-switching estimates from the original Dueker and Fischer (1996a) article and show that their early conclusions about inflation targeting among early adopters have not been overturned with an additional decade of data. These findings to date do not rule out the possibility, however, that formal inflation targets could prove pivotal if the global environment of disinflation were to reverse course.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 431-450

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:sep:p:431-450:n:v.88no.5

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

References

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  1. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Working Papers 2006/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," ZEI Working Papers B 01-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  4. Laurence Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Working Papers 9577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2001. "The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Robert H. Rasche & Marcela M. Williams, 2007. "The effectiveness of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 447-490.
  7. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
  8. M. H. Khalil Timamy, 2005. "Debate," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(104-105), pages 383-393, June.
  9. Vega, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," MPRA Paper 838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  11. Mathias Zurlinden, 1993. "The vulnerability of pegged exchange rates: the British pound in the ERM," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 41-56.
  12. Francisco De A. Nadal-De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Targeters In Practice: A Lucky Lot?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(3), pages 239-253, 07.
  13. Jim Lee, 1999. "Inflation Targeting In Practice: Further Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 332-347, 07.
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General," NBER Working Papers 5579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation targeting and optimal monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 15-42.
  16. Johannes Groeneveld & Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool, 1998. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 21-38, January.
  17. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," NBER Working Papers 4985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 1-45, December.
  19. Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, November.
  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  22. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 10-18.
  23. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.
  24. Pierre L. Siklos, 1999. "Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 46-58.
  25. Markus Hyvonen, 2004. "Inflation Convergence Across Countries," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  26. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
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