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Monetary Policy Instrument and Inflation in South Africa: Structural Vector Error Correction Model Approach

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  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
  • Kabundi, Alain

Abstract

Since the adoption of inflation rate targeting policy, there has been a great concern on the effectiveness of monetary policy to curb inflation in South Africa. The effectiveness of the repo rate as a policy instrument to control the level of inflation has been widely criticised not only in the South African context but also internationally. With the critics pointing out from a substantial lag for monetary policy changes to affect inflation to the inability of the policy instrument to effectively affect inflation level. In assessing the effectiveness of the monetary policy in South Africa, this paper makes use of the structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to characterise the dynamics of inflation to monetary policy shocks. The results of the impulse response function obtained from the SVECM found that while positive shocks to monetary policy decrease output but do not decrease credit demand and inflation in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Kabundi, Alain, 2015. "Monetary Policy Instrument and Inflation in South Africa: Structural Vector Error Correction Model Approach," MPRA Paper 63731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel A. Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working Papers 201228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Dube, Smile, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) and Inflation-Targeting (IT): Evidence from South Africa - Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting: evidenze dal Sud Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(2), pages 121-150.
    4. Temitope L.A Leshoro, 2014. "Does the Repurchase Rate Affect Inflation in South Africa? An Empirical Analysis Using an Impulse Response Function," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(7), pages 524-531.
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 176-196, August.
    6. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 170-178.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2014. "A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 46-63, April.
    8. Nurtac Yildirim & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Seval Oral Ozkan, 2015. "Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 11-35.
    9. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
    10. Katleho Makatjane & Ntebogang Moroke & Diteboho Xaba, 2017. "Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Causality test between Inflation Rate and Repo Rate," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(3), pages 163-170.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation rate targeting; Policy instruments; Structural Vector Error Correction Model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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