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Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Activism

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Author Info
Toshitaka Sekine (Associate Monetary Affairs Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: toshitaka.sekine @boj.or.jp))
Yuki Teranishi (Associate Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: yuuki.teranishi @boj.or.jp))

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Abstract

We estimate monetary policy activism, defined as responsiveness of the policy interest rate to inflation, among five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand) plus the G3 (the US, Japan and Germany) by applying a time- varying parameter with a stochastic-volatility model. We find that activism of inflation-targeting countries tends to have increased before (not after) the adoption of the inflation-targeting policy framework and that these countries have experienced a decline in activism in recent years, albeit to different degrees. We further explore this result in terms of the constraint of an inflation target range by developing a formal theoretical model in a New Keynesian framework.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 08-E-13.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-13

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation-targeting Policy; Monetary Policy Activism; New Keynesian Model; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Time-varying Parameter with Stochastic Volatility Model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  4. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  22. David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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