Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis
In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007
AbstractThis paper provides an empirical analysis of the causes of deviations of inflation from the CNB targets. In the short term, shocks relating to prices of agricultural producers represent the most important factor. In the medium-term horizon, foreign exchange shocks form the most important factor. At the same time, it could not be proved that monetary policy would create any major shocks contributing to the non-fulfilment of inflation targets, although its certain role cannot be excluded either.
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inflation targeting; VAR model; exchange rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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- Zuzana Antonicova & Karel Musil & Lubos Ruzicka & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts: A Historic Overview," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 7, pages 86-101 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Holub, Tomáš, 2004.
"Foreign exchange interventions under inflation targeting: the Czech Experience,"
17, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
- Tomas Holub, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Research and Policy Notes 2004/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- TomÃ¡Å¡ Holub & JaromÃr HurnÃk, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
- Roman Horvath, 2008. "Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 10, pages 131-142 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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