Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe
AbstractThis paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-à-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Money; Inflation; Forecasting; Central Europe;
Other versions of this item:
- Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Filip Rozsypal, 2010. "Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment for Central Europe," Working Papers 2010/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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