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An Estimated DSGE Model for Sweden with a Monetary Regime Change

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Author Info

  • Cúrdia, Vasco

    ()
    (Princeton University)

  • Finocchiaro, Daria

    (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)

Abstract

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model for Sweden. We explicitly account for a monetary regime change from an exchange rate target zone to flexible exchange rates with explicit inflation targeting. In each of these regimes, we analyze the behavior of the monetary authority and the relative contribution to the business cycle of structural shocks in detail. Our results can be summarized as follows. Monetary policy is mainly concerned with stabilizing the exchange rate in the target zone and with price stability in the inflation targeting regime. Expectations of realignment and the risk premium are the main sources of volatility in the target zone period. In the inflation targeting period, monetary shocks are important sources of volatility in the short run, but in the long run, labor supply and preference shocks become relatively more important. Foreign shocks are much more destabilizing under the target zone than under inflation targeting.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 740.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0740

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Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-8-162000
Fax: +46-8-161443
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
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Keywords: Bayesian estimation; DSGE models; target zone; inflation targeting; regime change;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2014. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," CAMA Working Papers 2014-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2008. "Regime shifts and the stability of backward-looking Phillips curves in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-53, February.
  4. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.

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