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Monetary regime change and business cycles

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Vasco Cúrdia
Daria Finocchiaro

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Abstract

This paper analyzes how changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy. We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the 1993 monetary regime change, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results confirm that monetary policy reacted primarily to exchange rate movements in the target zone and to inflation in the inflation-targeting regime. Devaluation expectations were the principal source of volatility in the target zone period. In the inflation-targeting period, labor supply and preference shocks have become relatively more important.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 294.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:294

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles ; Monetary policy ; Foreign exchange rates ; Inflation (Finance) ; Equilibrium (Economics) ; Stochastic analysis ; Econometric models;

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  1. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gottfries, N., 1999. "Market Shares, Financial Constraints, and Pricing Behavior in the Export Market," Papers 1999:15, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
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  3. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jesper Lindé, 2004. "Swedish Postwar Business Cycles: Generated Abroad or at Home?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 106(4), pages 623-645, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Working Papers 13166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lindé, Jesper & Nessen, Marianne & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated Open-Economy Model with Imperfect Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 4531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," IMF Working Papers 01/107, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2006. "Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances?," 2006 Meeting Papers 479, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Towards new open economy macroeconometrics," Staff Reports 100, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2007. "Price Setting Transactions and the Role of Denominating Currency in FX Markets," Working Paper Series 201, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  12. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2004. "Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 04-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Johansson, Kerstin, 1998. "Exports in the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 62, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  19. Apel, Mikael & Friberg, Richard & Hallsten, Kerstin, 2005. "Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Price Adjustment: Survey Evidence from Swedish Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 313-38, April.
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  20. Friberg, Kent, 2003. "Intersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden," Working Paper Series 158, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  21. Jordi Galí, 2004. "On The Role of Technology Shocks as a Source of Business Cycles: Some New Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 372-380, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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