Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Cúrdia, Vasco

    (Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function)

  • Finocchiaro, Daria

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a DSGE model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results suggest that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the former, and mostly to inflation in the latter. The external sector plays an important role in the economy and the international transmission mechanism is significantly affected by the choice of exchange rate regime. A counterfactual experiment that applies the inflation targeting policy rule on the disturbances from the exchange rate targeting period suggests that such a policy would have led to higher output and employment, but also to a depreciated currency, higher inflation and a more volatile economy. We also show evidence that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious results for both the parameters associated with monetary policy as well as those that are policy-independent.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2010/wp241.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found (http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2010/wp241.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://www.riksbank.se/en/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2010/wp241.pdf). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Lena Löfgren)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 241.

as in new window
Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0241

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Email:
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian estimation; DSGE models; target zone; inflation targeting; regime change;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Apel, Mikael & Friberg, Richard & Hallsten, Kerstin, 2001. "Micro Foundations of Macroeconomic Price Adjustment: Survey Evidence from Swedish Firms," Working Paper Series 128, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEPR Discussion Papers 2873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
  6. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, 02.
  7. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2004. "Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 04-36, Bank of Canada.
  8. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
  9. Friberg, Kent, 2003. "Intersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden," Working Paper Series 158, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. Jesper Lindé & Marianne Nessén & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Monetary policy in an estimated open-economy model with imperfect pass-through," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 301-333.
  11. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Can structural small open economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Working Paper Series WP-09-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Eo, Yunjong, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 13910, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2009.
  13. Svensson, L.E.O., 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," Papers 521, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  14. Gottfries, Nils, 2002. "Market Shares, Financial Constraints and Pricing Behaviour in the Export Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(276), pages 583-607, November.
  15. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  16. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  17. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  19. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.
  20. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  21. Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2007. "Price Setting Transactions and the Role of Denominating Currency in FX Markets," Working Paper Series 201, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  22. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  23. Jordi Galí, 2004. "On The Role of Technology Shocks as a Source of Business Cycles: Some New Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 372-380, 04/05.
  24. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  25. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Towards new open economy macroeconometrics," Staff Reports 100, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. Francesco Bianchi, 2009. "Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  27. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
  28. Jesper Lindé, 2004. "Swedish Postwar Business Cycles: Generated Abroad or at Home?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 623-645, December.
  29. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Testing the basic target zone model on Swedish data 1982-1990," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1441-1469, August.
  30. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  31. Johansson, Kerstin, 1998. "Exports in the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 62, National Institute of Economic Research.
  32. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  33. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open economy model," Working Paper Series WP-09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  34. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
  35. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  36. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1985-92," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1170-79, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michael Cheng & Wai-Yip Alex Ho, 2009. "A Structural Investigation into the Price and Wage Dynamics in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0920, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  2. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.