Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching

Contents:

Author Info

  • Eo, Yunjong

Abstract

I estimate DSGE models with recurring regime changes in monetary policy (inflation target and reaction coefficients), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep parameter values but make probabilistic inference about prevailing and future regimes based on Bayes’ rule. I develop an estimation method that takes these probabilistic inferences into account when relating state variables to observed data. In an application to postwar U.S. data, I find stronger support for regime switching in monetary policy than in technology or nominal rigidities. In addition, a model with regime switching policy that conforms to the long-run Taylor principle given in Davig and Leeper (2007) is preferred to a determinacy-indeterminacy model motivated by Lubik and Schorfheide (2004). These empirical results indicate that, even though a passive policy regime produced more volatility in the economy from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s, the economy can be explained by determinacy over the entire postwar period, implying no role for sunspot shocks in explaining the changes in volatility.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13910/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13910.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision: 11 Feb 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13910

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: New Keynesian DSGE; Markov-switching; Monetary Policy; Indeterminacy; Long-run Taylor Principle; Bayesian Analysis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  3. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," Caepr Working Papers, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington 2006-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  5. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Willi Semmler & Lars Grüne & Marleen Stieler, 2013. "Using Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Dynamic Decision Problems in Economics," EcoMod2013 5782, EcoMod.
  2. Vasco Cúrdia & Daria Finocchiaro, 2013. "Monetary regime change and business cycles," Working Paper Series 2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2013. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients," MPRA Paper 50040, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.