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Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model

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  • Belaygorod, Anatoliy
  • Dueker, Michael

Abstract

We extend Lubik and Schorfheide's [2004. Testing for indeterminacy: an application to U.S. monetary policy. American Economic Review 94, 190-217] likelihood-based estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models under indeterminacy to encompass a sample period the includes both determinacy and indeterminacy by implementing a change-point methodology [Chib, S. 1998. Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models. Journal of Econometrics 86, 221-241]. By letting the data provide estimates of the dates of the determinacy regimes and allowing the estimates of structural parameters to be the same across regimes, we obtain more precise estimates of the differences in characteristics, such as the impulse responses, across the regimes. The most striking finding about the indeterminacy regime, which is estimated to coincide with the Great Inflation of the 1970s, is that it exhibits the price puzzle, in that the inflation rate rises immediately and in a sustained manner following a positive interest rate shock. Thus, the price puzzle might have been a genuine phenomenon under indeterminacy, rather than a false finding to be excised through specification search and parameter restrictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 624-648

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:624-648

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Keywords: Price puzzle Indeterminacy Great inflation Change-point Metropolis-Hastings;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roger Farmer & Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models," IMF Working Papers 13/200, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Zheng, Tingguo & Guo, Huiming, 2013. "Estimating a small open economy DSGE model with indeterminacy: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 642-652.
  3. repec:wyi:journl:002201 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Cúrdia, Vasco & Finocchiaro, Daria, 2010. "Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 241, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  5. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.

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