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Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan

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Author Info
Siddiqui, Rizwana
Kemal, A R

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Abstract

Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios: (1) labour is homogeneous; (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicators.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2283.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2283

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Keywords: Capital inflow Poverty Pakistan

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F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 1999. "The Impact of Tariff Reforms on Income Distribution in Pakistan: A CGE-based Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 789-804. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Cockburn, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Development and Comp Systems 0409012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ashfaque H. Khan, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: Policies and Trends," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 959-985. [Downloadable!]
  4. White, H., 1995. "How much aid is used for poverty reduction?," Working Papers - General Series 204, Institute of Social Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Buffie, Edward, 1985. "Quantitative restrictions and the welfare effects of capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 291-303, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wood, Adrian, 1998. "Globalisation and the Rise in Labour Market Inequalities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1463-82, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Wood, Adrian, 1995. "How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 57-80, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1998. "Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade," IMF Working Papers 98/81, International Monetary Fund.
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  9. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Siddiqui, Rizwana & Kemal, A.R., 2002. "Remittances, trade liberalisation, and poverty in Pakistan: The role of excluded variables in poverty change analysis," MPRA Paper 4228, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sonja Fagernäs, 2004. "Analysing the Distributional Impacts of Stabilisation Policy with a CGE Model: Illustrations and Critique for Zimbabwe," Working Papers 4, Economics and Statistics Analysis Unit (ESAU), Overseas Development Institute. [Downloadable!]
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