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Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options

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  • Dorosh, Paul
  • Salam, Abdul

Abstract

This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on overall price levels. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2244.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2244

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Keywords: Wheat; Agricultural prices; Pakistan;

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References

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  1. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics 2006:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  2. Dorosh, Paul A., 2001. "Trade Liberalization and National Food Security: Rice Trade between Bangladesh and India," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 673-689, April.
  3. Dorosh, Paul & Vald├ęs, Alberto, 1990. "Effects of exchange rate and trade policies on agriculture in Pakistan:," Research reports, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Roland-Holst, David & Tarp, Finn, 2003. "Globalization, Economic Reform, and Structural Price Transmission: SAM Decomposition Techniques with an empirical application to Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mariano, Marc Jim M. & Giesecke, James A., 2014. "The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-361.
  2. Salam, Abdul, 2012. "Review of input and output policies for cereals production in Pakistan:," PSSP working papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Salam, Abdul, 2012. "Review of input and output policies for cereals production in Pakistan:," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1223, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Dorosh, Paul A. & Salam, Abdul, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Pakistan," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper, World Bank 48482, World Bank.
  5. Anonymous, 2011. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 7, Issue 2," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 7(2).
  6. Paul Dorosh, 2009. "Price stabilization, international trade and national cereal stocks: world price shocks and policy response in South Asia," The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 137-149, June.

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