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Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis

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  • Paul Dorosh

    (South Asia Rural Division, WOURLD Bank, Washington, D.C.)

  • Muhammad Khan Niazi

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Hina Nazli

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

In spite of substantial growth in agricultural GDP in the 1990s, rural poverty rates in Pakistan did not decline. This paper explores the reasons for this lack of correlation between increases in agricultural production and poverty reduction through an analysis of growth linkages using a 2001-02 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based semi-inputoutput model. Model simulations indicate that expansion of traditional crop agriculture can significantly benefit rural poor farmers. However, because of skewed distribution of land and earnings from land, landless agricultural labourers and the rural non-farm poor (who, together, account for 61 percent of the rural poor) do not benefit directly from growth in the crop sector. In the absence of a change in the structure of rural incomes and employment, further measures will likely be needed for rapid poverty reduction in Pakistan, including greater efforts to boost the livestock sector, expansion of the rural non-farm economy (in addition to agricultural growth-induced linkage effects), and targeted interventions to the poorest rural households.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 42 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 249-275

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:249-275

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  1. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 2002. "Why has economic growth been more pro-poor in some states of India than others?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 381-400, August.
  2. Dorosh, Paul & Niazi, Muhammad Khan, 2006. "Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," MPRA Paper 2242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Mellor, John W, 1978. "Food Price Policy and Income Distribution in Low-Income Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, October.
  4. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Farm productivity and rural poverty in India," FCND discussion papers 42, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Paul Dorosh & Steven Haggblade, 2003. "Growth Linkages, Price Effects and Income Distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 207-235, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Debowicz, Dario & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Haider, Syed Hamza, 2012. "A 2007-08 social accounting matrix for Pakistan:," PSSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Dorosh, Paul & Malik, Sohail & Krausova, Marika, 2010. "Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security following the 2010 Pakistan floods: Insights from South Asian experience," IFPRI discussion papers 1028, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Paul Dorosh & Abdul Salam, 2008. "Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 71-87.
  4. World Bank, 2007. "Pakistan : Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7984, The World Bank.
  5. Christiaensen,Luc & Demery,Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2010. "The (Evolving) Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction: An Empirical Perspective," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Dorosh, Paul A. & Malik, Sohail J., 2006. "Transitions Out of Poverty: Drivers of Real Income Growth for the Poor in Rural Pakistan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25387, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Gustavo Anriquez & Alberto Valdes, 2006. "Determinants of Farm Revenue in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 281-301.
  8. World Bank, 2012. "Pakistan - Strategic Environmental, Poverty and Social Assessment of Trade and Transport Sector Reforms," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12316, The World Bank.

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