IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v47y2008i4p909-923.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab

Author

Listed:
  • Amara Amjad Hashmi

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha.)

  • Maqbool H. Sial

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha.)

  • Maaida Hussain Hashmi

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha.)

Abstract

Poverty is widespread in the rural areas, where the people are in a state of human deprivation with regard to incomes, clothing, housing, health care, education, sanitary facilities and human rights. Nearly 61 percent of the country’s populations live in rural areas. In Pakistan poverty has been increased in rural areas and is higher than urban areas. Of the total rural population 65 percent are directly or indirectly linked with agriculture sector. In Pakistan more than 44.8 percent people generate their income from agriculture sector, and the higher rate of increase in poverty in the rural areas has provoked debate on growth and productivity trends in the agriculture sector. Therefore, it is the need of the hour to determine such factors which affect the poverty status of a rural household. Utilising unique IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) panel data together with sub-sample of PRHS (Pakistan Rural Household Survey) for two districts of Punjab (Attock and Faisalabad) the present study aim at analysing and estimating the rural poverty trends and determinants of rural poverty from the late 1980s to 2002. The data was analysed by using binary logistic model and head count measure. The results show that the chance of a household tripping to poverty increased due to increase in household size, dependency ratio, while, education, value of livestock, remittances and farming decreased the likelihood of being a poor. Moreover, the socio-economic opportunities as represented by the availability of infrastructure in the residential region also play a significant role in the level of poverty faced by a household. This study makes a modest contribution by attempting to analyse the need for focusing on anti-poverty policies, which can nip the evil in the bud.

Suggested Citation

  • Amara Amjad Hashmi & Maqbool H. Sial & Maaida Hussain Hashmi, 2008. "Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 909-923.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:47:y:2008:i:4:p:909-923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2008/Volume4/909-923.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adams, Richard H, Jr & Alderman, Harold, 1992. "Sources of Income Inequality in Rural Pakistan: A Decomposition Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 591-608, November.
    2. Bokosi, Fanwell Kenala, 2006. "Household Poverty Dynamics in Malawi," MPRA Paper 1222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sen, Binayak, 2003. "Drivers of Escape and Descent: Changing Household Fortunes in Rural Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 513-534, March.
    4. Salman Syed Ali & Sayyid Tahir, 1999. "Dynamics of Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 837-858.
    5. Talat, 2006. "Trends in Absolute Poverty and Governance in Pakistan: 1998-99 and 2004-05," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 777-793.
    6. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
    7. G. M., Arif & Ahmad, Munir, 2001. "Poverty across the agro- ecological zones in rural Pakistan," MPRA Paper 37681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shahnawaz Malik, 1996. "Determinants of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: A Micro Study," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 171-187.
    9. Adams, Richard H., 2002. "Precautionary saving from different sources of income - evidence from rural Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2761, The World Bank.
    10. World Bank, 2002. "Poverty Assessment : Poverty in Pakistan - Vulnerabilities, Social Caps, and Rural Dynamics," World Bank Publications - Reports 15335, The World Bank Group.
    11. Rashid Amjad & A.R. Kemal, 1997. "Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 39-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manzoor Hussain Memon, 2023. "Poverty, Gap and Severity Estimates for Disaster Prone Rural Areas of Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 645-663, April.
    2. Kifayat Ullah & M. Tariq Majeed & Ghulam Mustafa, 2020. "Exploring Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Poverty: New Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 439-459.
    3. Muhammad Abrar ul haq & Mohd Razani Mohd Jali & Gazi Md Nural Islam, 2018. "Assessment of the role of household empowerment in alleviating participatory poverty among rural household of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(6), pages 2795-2814, November.
    4. Chengchao Wang & Yuan Wang & Haiyan Fang & Bidan Gao & Zudeng Weng & Ying Tian, 2020. "Determinants of Rural Poverty in Remote Mountains of Southeast China from the Household Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 793-810, August.
    5. Hameed, Abdul & Padda, Ihtsham ul Haq & Karim, Shahid, 2016. "Multidimensional Poverty Mapping for Rural Pakistan," MPRA Paper 85022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nurgül EVCİM & Sevcan GÜNEŞ & Hacer Simay KARAALP-ORHAN, 2020. "Factors Influencing the Household Relative Poverty in Turkey: Logistic Regression Analysis," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(43).
    7. Kifayat Ullah & Abdul Qayyum Mohsin & Abdul Saboor & Saranjam Baig, 2020. "Financial Inclusion, Socioeconomic Disaster Risks and Sustainable Mountain Development: Empirical Evidence from the Karakoram Valleys of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-26, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Munir Ahmad, 2003. "Agricultural Productivity, Efficiency, and Rural Poverty in Irrigated Pakistan: A Stochastic Production FrontiermAnalysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 219-248.
    2. Najam, Zaira, 2020. "The Sensitivity of Poverty Trends to Dimensionality and Distribution Sensitivity in Poverty Measures - District Level Analysis for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 102383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. S. M. Naseem, 2012. "A Review Of Studies On Poverty In Pakistan: Origin, Evolution, Thematic Content And Future Directions," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2012:1 edited by Rashid Amjad, December.
    4. Toseef Azid & Shahnawaz Malik, 2000. "Impact of Village-specific, Household-specific, and Technological Variables on Poverty in Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 793-806.
    5. Usman Qadir & Muhammad Ali Kemal & Hasan Mohammad Mohsin, 2000. "Impact of Trade Reforms on Poverty," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1137.
    6. Muhammad Ali Pasha & Parveen Shah & Saleem.Rahpota, 2018. "Benazir Income Support Programme (Bisp): Its Benefits And Implications," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(1), pages 14-16.
    7. Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Shahnawaz Malik & Abo ul Hassan, 2009. "The Impact of Socioeconomic and Demographic Variables on Poverty: A Village Study," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 39-68, Jan-Jun.
    8. Muhammad Abrar ul haq & Mohd Razani Mohd Jali & Gazi Md Nural Islam, 2018. "Assessment of the role of household empowerment in alleviating participatory poverty among rural household of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(6), pages 2795-2814, November.
    9. Muhammad Ali Pasha & Parveen Shah & Saleem.Rahpota, 2018. "Benazir Income Support Programme (Bisp): Its Benefits And Implications," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 198-208.
    10. G. M. Arif, 2004. "Child Health and Poverty in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 211-238.
    11. Farah Said & Tareena Musaddiq & Mahreen Mahmud, 2011. "Macro level Determinants of Poverty: Investigation Through Poverty Mapping of Districts of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 895-911.
    12. Muhammad Omer & Sarah Jafri, 2008. "Pro-Poor Growth in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 9(1), pages 51-68, June.
    13. Aliya H. Khan & Ali Shan Azhar, 2003. "Decomposition of Changes in Poverty Measures: Sectoral and Institutional Considerations for the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 879-892.
    14. Ahmad, Munir & Croraton, Caesar & Qayyum, Abdul & Iqbal, Muhammad & Dorosh, Paul, 2005. "Impact of Domestic Policies towards Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Market Reform on Food Security in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kifayat Ullah & M. Tariq Majeed & Ghulam Mustafa, 2020. "Exploring Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Poverty: New Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 439-459.
    16. Dorosh, Paul A. & Malik, Sohail J., 2006. "Transitions Out of Poverty: Drivers of Real Income Growth for the Poor in Rural Pakistan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25387, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Mahmood, Moazam., 2006. "Poverty reduction in Pakistan : the strategic impact of macro and employment policies," ILO Working Papers 993920503402676, International Labour Organization.
    18. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2012. "Remittances, inequality and poverty in Pakistan: macro and microeconomic Evidence [Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques REMITTANCES, INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN PAKISTA," Working Papers hal-01885153, HAL.
    19. A. R. Kemal, 2003. "Structural Adjustment and Poverty in Pakistan," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 2003:14, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    20. repec:ilo:ilowps:392050 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Rashida Haq, 2001. "Occupational Profile of Poverty in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 1093-1104.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rural Poverty; Poverty Trends; Agriculture Growth; Determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:47:y:2008:i:4:p:909-923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.