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Décomposition des effets des politiques économiques sur l'évolution de la pauvreté au Cameroun: une analyse en équilibre général micro-simulé avec double calibration

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Author Info
Christian Arnault Émini
Dorine Kanmi Feunou
Abstract

Ce papier décompose la contribution des politiques économiques majeures menées au Cameroun, dans la réduction de la pauvreté entre 1993 et 2001. Pour cela, un modèle de microsimulation en équilibre général calculable, avec double calibration a été utilisé. Il en résulte que les changements technologiques survenus entre 1993 et 2001 expliquent à eux seuls 31% de la réduction de la proportion de pauvres (FGT0) au niveau national, et 45% de la croissance du PIB, avec une tendance à tirer le niveau des prix à la consommation vers le bas. Les changements technologiques renvoient ici aux variations des valeurs des paramètres d'échelle connus dans les fonctions de production et de différenciation des produits par origine ou par destination. Les contributions de la dévaluation de 1994 du Franc CFA, de la réhabilitation des infrastructures, et de la réforme fiscale de 1994, représentent respectivement 1%, 11% et 3% dans la croissance du PIB; et 65%, 0% et 11% dans la hausse des prix à la consommation; 2%, 9% et -4% dans la réduction de l'indice FGT0.

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Paper provided by PEP-MPIA in its series Cahiers de recherche MPIA with number 2008-17.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2008-17

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Related research
Keywords: Double calibration; décomposition d'impacts; microsimulation; dévaluation; modèles EGC; changements technologiques; réformes fiscales et douanières; infrastructures de base;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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  1. Dorosh, Paul & Niazi, Muhammad Khan, 2006. "Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," MPRA Paper 2242, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Thorbecke, Erik, 1991. "Adjustment, growth and income distribution in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1595-1614, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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