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Impact Analysis of the Liberalization of Groundnut Production in Senegal: A Multi-household Computable General Equilibrium Model

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  • Dorothée Boccanfuso

    ()
    (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

  • Luc Savard

    ()
    (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

Abstract

In Senegal, the poverty reduction strategy will take place in a context characterized by international trade liberalization in the agricultural sector, in general and the groundnut sector, in particular. This is the backdrop against which we have developed a micro-simulated multiple household computable general equilibrium such as proposed by Decaluwé et al. (1999b). Four simulations have been made and their impacts assessed at the macroeconomic, sectoral and household levels. The first two simulations concerned tariff reforms, and the last two, the external shocks resulting from a change in export prices on the world market (groundnuts and groundnut oils). These simulations have been used to assess the impacts that the liberalization of the groundnut industry and the privatization of Société Nationale de Commercialisation des Oléagineux du Sénégal (SONACOS) provided for in the Framework Agreement, may have on households and to establish a link between these economic reforms, poverty and income ditribution. This model is very flexible because it allows, in particular, a change in the distribution of the target groups who had not been retained prior to the simulation exercise so that an ex post analysis of poverty and inequality to the modeling exercise could be carried out.

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Paper provided by Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 05-12.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:05-12

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Keywords: computable general equilibrium model; micro-simulation; poverty analysis; income distribution; privatization;

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  1. Bourguignon, F. & Michel, G. & Miqueu, D., 1983. "Short-run rigidities and long-run adjustments in a computable general equilibrium model of income distribution and development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 21-43.
  2. Dorothée Boccanfuso & François Joseph Cabral & Luc Savard, 2004. "Une analyse préliminaire d'impacts de la libéralisation de la filière arachide au Sénégal: un modèle d'équilibre général calculable multi-ménages," Cahiers de recherche 0406, CIRPEE.
  3. François Bourguignon & Amadéo Spadaro, 2005. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590863, HAL.
  4. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867, April.
  5. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  6. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  7. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
  8. Bourguignon, Francois & De Melo, Jaime & Suwa, Akiko, 1991. "Modeling the effects of adjustment programs on income distribution," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1527-1544, November.
  9. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
  10. Akobundu, Eberechukwu & Norton, George W. & Gaye, Matar & Bertelsen, Michael, 1998. "Farm-Household Analysis Of Policies Affecting Peanut Production In Senegal," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20887, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Luc Savard, 2005. "Poverty and Inequality Analysis within a CGE Framework: A Comparative Analysis of the Representative Agent and Microsimulation Approaches," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 313-331, 05.
  12. B. Decaluwé & L. Savard & E. Thorbecke, 2005. "General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to Cameroon," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 213-243.
  13. Taylor, Lance & Lysy, Frank J., 1979. "Vanishing income redistributions : Keynesian clues about model surprises in the short run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-29, February.
  14. Chia, Ngee-Choon & Wahba, Sadek & Whalley, John, 1994. "Poverty-Reducing Targeting Programmes: A General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 3(2), pages 309-38, October.
  15. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3473, The World Bank.
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