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Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models

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  • Chang, Yoosoon
  • Maih, Junior
  • Tan, Fei

Abstract

We examine monetary policy shifts by taking a new approach to regime switching in a small scale DSGE model with threshold-type switching in the monetary policy rule. The policy response to inflation is allowed to switch endogenously between two regimes, hawkish and dovish, depending on whether a latent regime factor crosses a threshold level. Endogeneity stems from the historical impacts of structural shocks driving the economy on the regime factor. By estimating our DSGE model using the U.S. data, we quantify the endogenous feedback from each structural shock to the regime factor to understand the sources of the observed policy shifts. This new channel sheds new light on the interaction between policy changes and measured economic behavior.

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  • Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0165188921001706
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104235
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; DSGE Model; Regime switching; Latent autoregressive regime factor; Endogenous feedback; Expectations formation effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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