Estimating Sovereign Default Risk
AbstractThis paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the sovereign default probability for Greece and Italy in the post-EMU period. We build a real business cycle model that allows for interactions among fiscal policy instruments, sovereign default risk, and a "fiscal limit," which measures the maximum level of debt the government is willing to finance. We estimate the full nonlinear model using likelihood inference methods. Although we find that Greece historically had a lower default probability than Italy for a given debt level, our estimates suggest that the Italian government is more willing to service debt than the Greek government.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 102 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Huixin Bi, 2010.
"Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy,"
Caepr Working Papers
2010-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
- Huixin Bi, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 11-10, Bank of Canada.
- Kazuki Hiraga, 2012. "Measuring the Tax Revenue Elasticity to Output in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-010, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
- Anna Sokolova, 2013. "Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy: Default vs. Inflation," HSE Working papers WP BRP 39/EC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- Andrew Foerster & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Dan Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013.
"Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE model,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 13-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Andrew Foerster & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Dan Waggoner & Ta Zha, 2013. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers 2013-22, FEDEA.
- Foerster, Andrew & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," Working Paper 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Foerster, Andrew & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Waggoner, Daniel F & Zha, Tao, 2013. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Foerster & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2014. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 20390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sokolova, A., 2014. "Sovereign Risk and Monetary Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 56-82.
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