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Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

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Author Info

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Meier, André
  • Müller, Gernot J.

Abstract

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 61 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 53-73

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:61:y:2014:i:c:p:53-73

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

Related research

Keywords: Sovereign risk channel; Monetary union; Euro area; Zero lower bound; Risk premium; Pooling of sovereign risk;

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References

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  1. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
  3. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in'tVeld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-034, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
  5. Huixin Bi, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," Caepr Working Papers 2010-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  6. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-fulfilling debt crises," Staff Report 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  9. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  11. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2013. "Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Banking Sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2013-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages F99-F132, 02.
  13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2013. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Self-fulfilling debt crises and monetary sovereignty," CEPR Discussion Papers 9358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  15. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Edda Zoli, 2013. "Italian Sovereign Spreads," IMF Working Papers 13/84, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
  18. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The elusive costs of sovereign defaults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 95-105, January.
  19. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
  20. Ugo Albertazzi & Tiziano Ropele & Gabriele Sene & Federico M. Signoretti, 2012. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 133, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  22. Stefano Neri, 2013. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on bank lending rates in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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Cited by:
  1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudre & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b9, Sciences Po.
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS

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